On the Midterms
On November 4th, the world woke to a Democratic landslide in the US midterm elections. Several deep red states were flipped as the Democratic Party took control of the Senate and House and won key gubernatorial races.
But in a day of celebration for the party, what should we take from these results? Gains were made, for instance, by candidates in both the Democratic centre and the left of the party. From the climate perspective, the issue was scarcely legible across Democratic campaigns, tethered either to themes like energy and fuel prices or sidestepped altogether—so much so that the strategy assumed its own name: climate hushing.
And with an obstinate Trump set on exercising his veto power in the White House until early 2029, what can are the risks and opportunities for the climate in the coming years? We put these and other key questions to climate journalist Kate Aronoff.
Adrienne Buller: It’s an historic day for the Democrats, but what do these results mean for US climate policy? Realistically, what is the scope for change with Trump in the White House until early 2029?
Kate Aronoff: To start with some dour news from a phenomenal night: Democrats will struggle to push through any sort of big, party-line legislative agenda—i.e. a climate bill—so long as Trump is in the White House. The party won, massively, basically everywhere, but still lacks the votes to override either the filibuster or a presidential veto. This election also doesn’t mean much in the short-run for US diplomatic engagement on climate, which runs through the Executive branch of government.
At the federal level, Democrats’ main power in the "lame duck" period will be oversight. They can force cabinet officials and CEOs to testify. Congress can pose a more meaningful block against regulatory rollbacks and re-assert its role over war, trade and other areas that the White House has unilaterally decided it controls. Democrats will have considerable leverage over must-pass spending bills, including the country’s massively carbon-intensive defense budget.
The fact that last night was such an unmitigated nightmare for the GOP—and a strong rebuke of the Iran War—means some Republicans might be newly willing to break with Trump on the issue, and join Democratic efforts to rein in defense spending. Maybe Republicans that didn’t lose their seats could be convinced to reinstate some of the Biden-era clean energy incentives that helped pour money into their districts.